Donald Trump has been uncannily successful so far in his bid to be elected President. He defeated 16 other republican candidates in a bruising primary battle. He is now gaining on Hillary in the polls but seems to have a lower chance than Hillary to win enough electoral votes to win. An analysis of a path to victory for Donald Trump is in order and is offered solely based on my observations of the race over time. Just what sort of conditions will lead to a Donald Trump Victory?
- Campaign. Donald Trump is starting to run a decent campaign now with the presence of Roger Ailes, the man who helped get Ronald Reagan elected. Stephan Bannon (the financial, but not philosophical heir of Breitbart) has also helped to solidify and electrify the Trump base. However, Trump’s campaign efforts will not be likely be enough to convince all true conservative constitutionalists to support him. (But it is extremely unlikely that loss of constitutionally loyal, principled conservatives will be enough to substantially harm Trump). It is conceivable but unlikely that Trump’s standard campaign strategies will be enough to beat the Democrat and Clinton machine. This is true even with the net drain of Clinton votes toward so-called Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. Those wanting a Trump victory should not hold their breath for solid campaign effectiveness to win. Especially since it is clear that Hillary and the mainstream media likely have multiple bombshells for strategically timed release to harm Trump.
- Unpolled New Voters. It is likely that polling is inaccurate. There will likely be many new voters turning out over their disgust of the current level of corruption among the political class in D.C. That will be exacerbated and enhanced by any of the events below. Mainstream polling techniques generally target “likely voters” – that means people with a track record of voting in the past. New voters are not being polled well, and it is highly doubtful that those who are polled are “too embarrassed” to admit they support Trump.
- Economic Trouble. It is beyond dispute that the 2008 economic meltdown helped catapult Obama into office. Such an event will clearly help Trump given his narrative (false though it is) that a “businessman” can rescue the economy. In addition Chinese, Russian and private hacking into financial institution could easily produce an economic calamity that would help Trump. They may do so not to help Trump, but to cause chaos from the economic fallout itself and the political fallout of a Trump victory.
- Major Terrorist Attack or Military Conflict A dramatic terrorist attack on American soil or on American interests could further demonstrate the complete incompetence of the Obama/Clinton foreign policy. A major military confrontation around the world would do the same. Foreign interest and Jihadists are looking to continue to harass America and induce chaos in our society. They seek a weak America full of panic that rushes to harm individual liberty as it moves toward a war footing. It is not beyond foreign and anti-american agents to launch such an attack with the goal of enabling a Trump election. This would further disrupt the political system and assist the election of a candidate who has sworn to interfere with free speech rights, privacy and other liberties in America (Trump). Such a loss of liberties (from Trump or Clinton) would further weaken America, making us an even easier target and lead to more internal civil disruption to harm us even more.
- Civil Unrest. Rioting in our streets has been fomented by foreign, anti-American interests (like George Soros and his support for black Lives matter). The Islamic Jihadists are promoting unrest in Black Lives Matter as well. Irresponsible and self-serving politicians and media outlets continue to perpetuate the absolute lies of “hands up don’t shoot”, “institutional racism”, racist cops and more. Even any justified police shooting of any black person is met with a shiver of fear in every community as they brace for rioting, violence and looting. Such continued civil unrest will clearly help Trump as Americans are simply sick of the destruction of civil order by the lying agitators who have been assisted and supported by the Obama/Clinton “Social Justice” warriors and liars.
- More Hillary Corruption Stories. There is no doubt that Hillary Clinton is about as corrupt a politician as has ever been seen in American history. She can lie on camera, be caught in the lie by the FBI, then go on the news to say the FBI never said they caught her lying and still come out “clean”. That is thanks to the corrupt press. However, it is clear that there will also be bombshells coming on Hillary. It should raise concern however that there may be a Trump-Russian link on the hacking that could demonstrate a dangerous level of corruption by Trump. However, Americans are not going to tolerate more dramatic crooked Hillary stories and that could help Trump decisively as well.
If any of these events come to pass and Trump is elected because of them, then there will be need for a very jaundiced eye toward Trump and the role of him or his his supporters (e.g. Putin, Julian Asange, Roger Stone, Paul Manafort) in producing these dramatic events leading to a Trump Presidency.